Raw productivity estimate 59
Adjusted productivity estimate 69.2
Raw decline 18%
Adjusted decline 3.9%
Synthetic, illustrative productivity trend
Recovery trend
Difference between raw and adjusted result: 14.1 percentage points.
Interpretation warning
Raw post-transition productivity should not be treated as a stable baseline because the scenario includes ramp-up or outlier controls.
Executive summary
Raw productivity suggests a decline of 18%. After adjusting for FTE, demand, ramp-up period, work type complexity, seasonality, and outlier treatment, the estimated impact is closer to 3.9%. This indicates the first 4 weeks should not be treated as a stable performance baseline.